Publications in refereed journals
62. Nzotungicimpaye, C.-M., A.J. MacIsaac, K. Zickfeld. (2023). Delaying methane mitigation increases the risk of breaching the 2°C warming limit. Communications Earth and Environment 4, 250, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00898-z.
61. Chimuka, V.R., C.-M. Nzotungicimpaye, K. Zickfeld. (2023). Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions. Biogeosciences. 20: 2283–2299, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023.
60. Forster, P.M., C.J. Smith, T. Walsh, W.F. Lamb, R. Lamboll, M. Hauser, A. Ribes, D. Rosen, N. Gillett, M.D. Palmer, J. Rogelj, K. von Schuckmann, S.I. Seneviratne, B. Trewin, X. Zhang, M. Allen, R. Andrew, A. Birt, A. Borger, T. Boyer, J.A. Broersma, L.Cheng, F. Dentener, P. Friedlingstein, J.M. Gutiérrez, J. G̈utschow, B. Hall, M. Ishii, S. Jenkins, X. Lan, J.-Y. Lee, C. Morice, C. Kadow, J. Kennedy, R. Killick, J.C. Minx, V. Naik, G.P. Peters, A. Pirani, J. Pongratz, C.-F. Schleussner, S. Szopa, P. Thorne, R. Rohde, M. Rojas Corradi, D. Schumacher, R. Vose, K. Zickfeld, V. Masson-Delmotte, and P. Zhai. (2023). Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence. Earth System Science Data. 15: 2295–2327,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023.
59. Koven, C., V.K. Arora, P. Cadule, RA. Fisher, C. D. Jones, D. M. Lawrence, J. Lewis, K. Lindsey, S. Mathesius, M. Meinshausen, M. Mills, Z. Nicholls, B.M. Sanderson, N.C. Swart, W.R. Wieder, and K. Zickfeld, Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios, Earth Syst. Dyn., 13, 885-909, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022.
58. Matthews, H.D., K. Zickfeld, M. Dickau, A. MacIsaac, S. Mathesius, C.-M. Nzotungicimpaye, A. Luers, 2022, Temporary nature-based carbon removal can lower peak warming in a well-below 2°C scenario, Communications Earth & Environment, 3:65, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00391-z.
57. Nzotungicimpaye, C-M, K. Zickfeld, A.H. MacDougall, J.R. Melton, C.C. Treat, M. Eby, L.F.W. Lesack, 2021, WETMETH 1.0: a new wetland methane model for implementation in Earth system models, Geosc. Model Dev., 14, 6215-6240, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6215-2021.
56. Jackson, R.B., S. Abernethy, J.G. Canadell, M. Cargnello, S.J. Davis, S. Féron, S Fuss, A. Heyer, C. Hong, C.D. Jones, H.D. Matthews, F.M. O’Connor, M. Pisciotta, H.M. Rhoda, R. de Richter, E.I. Solomon, J.L. Wilcox, K. Zickfeld, 2021, A Research Agenda for Atmospheric Methane Removal, Trans. Phil. Roy. Soc. A, 379, 20200454. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2020.0454.
55. Zickfeld, K., D. Azevedo, S. Mathesius, H.D. Matthews, 2021, Asymmetry of the climate-carbon cycle response to positive and negative CO2 emissions, Nat. Clim. Chang., 11, 613–617, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01061-2.
54. Matthews, H.D., K.B. Tokarska, Z.R.J. Nicholls, J. Rogelj, J.G. Canadell, P. Friedlingstein, T.L. Frölicher, P. Forster, N.P. Gillett, T. Ilyina, R.B. Jackson, C.D. Jones, C. Koven, R. Knutti, A.H. MacDougall, M. Meinshausen, N. Mengis, R. Séférian, K. Zickfeld, 2020, Opportunities and challenges in using carbon budgets to guide climate policy, Nat. Geosc. 13, 769-779, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-00663-3.
53. Mengis, N., D.P. Keller, A. MacDougall, M. Eby, N. Wright, K.J. Meissner, A. Oschlies, A. Schmittner, A.H. MacIsaac, H.D. Matthews, K. Zickfeld, 2020, Evaluation of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model version 2.10 (UVic ESCM 2.10), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4183–4204, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4183-2020.
52. Li, X., K. Zickfeld, S. Mathesius, K. Kohfeld, J.B.R. Matthews, 2020, Irreversibility of marine climate change impacts under carbon dioxide removal, Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 47, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088507.
51. MacDougall, A. H., T.L. Frölicher, C.D. Jones, J. Rogelj, H.D. Matthews, K. Zickfeld et al., 2020, Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the emission commitment from CO2, Biogeosciences, 17, 2987-3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020.
50. Chhetri, B.K., E. Galanis, S. Sobie, J. Brubacher, R. Balshaw, M. Otterstatter, S. Mak, M. Lem, M. Lysyshyn, T. Murdock, M, Fleury, K. Zickfeld, M. Zubel, L. Clarkson, T.K. Takaro, 2019, Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Environmental Health 18:116, https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-019-0550-y.
49. Tokarska, K.B., K. Zickfeld, J. Rogelj, 2019, Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot, Earth’s Future, 7, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001312.
48. Jones, C., T.L. Frölicher, C. Koven, A.H. MacDougall, H.D. Matthews, K. Zickfeld, J. Rogelj, K.B. Tokarska, N. Gillett, T. Ilyina, M. Meinshausen, **N. Mengis, R. Séférian, M, Eby, 2019, The Zero Emission Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4375–4385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019.
47. Aminipouri, M., D. Rayner, F. Lindberg, S. Thorsson, A.J. Knudby, K. Zickfeld, A. Middel, E.S. Krayenhoff, Urban tree planting to maintain outdoor thermal comfort under climate change: The case of Vancouver's local climate zones, Building and Environment, 158, 226-236, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2019.05.022.
46. Aminipouri, M., A.J. Knudby, S.E. Krayenhoff, K. Zickfeld and A. Middel, 2019, Modelling the impact of increased street tree cover on human thermal exposure across Vancouver’s local climate zones, Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 39, 9-17,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2019.01.016.
45. Smith, C.J, P.M. Forster, M. Allen, J. Fuglestvedt, R. Millar, J. Rogelj and K. Zickfeld, 2019, Current infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5°C warming, Nature Communications 10 (101), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07999-w.
44. Keller, D., A. Lenton, V. Scott, N. Vaughan, N. Bauer, D. Ji, C. Jones, B. Kravitz, H. Muri, K. Zickfeld, 2018, The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDR-MIP): Rationale and experimental design, Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 1133–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018.
43. Tokarska, K., N.P. Gillett, V.K. Arora, W. Lee, and K. Zickfeld, 2018, The influence of non-CO2 forcings on cumulative carbon emissions budgets, Environmental Research Letters, 13, 034039, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaafdd.
42. Ehlert, D., K. Zickfeld, 2018, Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal, Earth System Dynamics, 9, 197–210, 2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-197-2018.
41. Matthews, H.D., K. Zickfeld, R. Knutti, and M. Allen, 2018, Focus on Cumulative Emissions, Global Carbon Budgets and the Implications for Climate Mitigation Targets, Environmental Research Letters, 13, 010201, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c.
40. Ehlert, D., K. Zickfeld, M. Eby, N. Gillett, 2017, The effect of variations in ocean mixing on the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions, Journal of Climate, 30(8), 2921-2935, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0247.1.
39. Matthews, H.D., J.-S. Landry, A.-I. Partanen, M. Allen, M. Eby, P.M. Forster, P. Friedlingstein, K. Zickfeld, 2017, Estimating carbon budgets for ambitious climate targets, Current Climate Change Reports, 3, 69-77, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0055-0.
38. Nzotungicimpaye, C.-M., K. Zickfeld, 2017, The contribution from methane to the permafrost carbon feedback, Current Climate Change Reports, 3, 58–68, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0054-1.
37. Ehlert, D., K. Zickfeld, 2017, What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions? Environmental Research Letters, 12, 015002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa564a.
36. Zickfeld, K., S. Solomon, D.M. Gilford, 2017, Centuries of Thermal Sea Level Rise Due to Anthropogenic Emissions of Short-Lived Greenhouse Gases, Proceedings National Academy of Sciences USA, 114, 657-662, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1612066114.
35. Zickfeld, K., A.H. MacDougall and H.D. Matthews, 2016, On the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions during periods of net negative CO2 emissions, Environmental Research Letters, 11, 055006, http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055006.
34. MacDougall, A.H., K. Zickfeld, R. Knutti, and H.D. Matthews, 2015, Sensitivity of carbon budgets to permafrost carbon feedbacks and non-CO2 forcings, Environmental Research Letters, 10, 125003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125003.
33. Tokarska, K.B., and Zickfeld, K., 2015, The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change, Environmental Research Letters, 10, 094013, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094013.
32. Zickfeld, K., and T. Herrington, 2015, The time lag between a carbon dioxide emission and maximum warming increases with the size of the emission, Environmental Research Letters, 10, 031001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/031001.
31. Herrington, T., and K. Zickfeld, 2014, Path independence of climate and carbon cycle response over a broad range of cumulative carbon emissions, Earth Syst. Dynam., 5: 409-422, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-409-2014.
30. Eby, M., A.J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld et al., 2013, Historical and idealized climate model experiments: An intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity, Climate of the Past 9(3): 1111-1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013.
29. Zickfeld, K., M. Eby, K. Alexander, A.J. Weaver et al., 2013, Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC intercomparison, Journal of Climate 26(16):5782-5809, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00584.1.
28. Weaver, A.J., Jan Sedlácek, M. Eby, K. Alexander, E. Crespin, T. Fichefet, G. Philippon-Berthier, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, K. Matsumoto, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, K. Zickfeld, 2012, Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Model Intercomparison, Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L20709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053763.
27. Kvale, K.F., K. Zickfeld, T. Bruckner, K.J. Meissner, K. Tanaka, and A.J. Weaver, 2012, Carbon dioxide emissions pathways avoiding dangerous ocean impacts, Weather, Climate and Society, 4, 212-292, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-11-00030.1.
26. Zickfeld, K., V.K Arora, and N.P. Gillett, 2012, Is the climate response to carbon emissions path dependent? Geophysical Research Letters. 39, L05703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050205.
25. Matthews, H.D., and K. Zickfeld, 2012, Climate response to zeroed emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, Nature Climate Change 2, 338-341.
24. Zickfeld, K., M. Eby, H.D. Matthews, A. Schmittner, and A.J. Weaver, 2011, Nonlinearity of carbon cycle feedbacks, Journal of Climate 24(6): 4254-4274.
23. Gillett, N.P., V. Arora, K. Zickfeld, S. Marshall, and B. Merryfield, 2011, Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions, Nature Geoscience, 4:83–87.
22. Zickfeld, K. , M.G. Morgan, D.J. Frame, and D.W. Keith, 2010, Expert judgments about transient climate response to alternative future trajectories of radiative forcing, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 107 (28): 12451-12456.
21. Kuhlbrodt, T., S. Rahmstorf, K. Zickfeld, F. Vikebø, S. Sundby, M. Hofmann, P.M. Link, A. Bondeau, W. Cramer, and C. Jaeger, 2009, An Integrated Assessment of Changes in the Thermohaline Circulation,Climatic Change, 96, 489-537
20. Zickfeld, K., M. Eby, H.D. Matthews, and A.J. Weaver, 2009, Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 106(38): 16129-16134.
19. Eby, M., K. Zickfeld, A. Montenegro, D. Archer, K.J. Meissner, and A.J. Weaver, 2009, Lifetime of anthropogenic climate change: Millennial life-times of potential CO2 and temperature perturbations,Journal of Climate, 22: 2501-2511.
18. Matthews, H.D., N. Gillett, P. A. Stott, and K. Zickfeld, 2009, The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions, Nature, 459: 829-833.
17. Bruckner, T., and K. Zickfeld, 2009, Low risk emissions corridors for safeguarding the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 14, 61-83.
16. Zickfeld, K., and T. Bruckner, 2008, Reducing the risk of Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapse: sensitivity analysis of emissions corridors. Climatic Change, 91, 291-315.
15. Zickfeld, K. , M. Eby, and A.J. Weaver, 2008, Carbon-cycle feedbacks of changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation under future atmospheric CO2, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 22, GB3024.
14. Zickfeld, K., J.C. Fyfe, M. Eby, and A.J. Weaver, 2008, Comment on “Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change”. Science, 319, 570b.
13. Knopf, B., K. Zickfeld, M. Flechsig, and V. Petoukhov, 2008, Sensitivity of the Indian monsoon to human activities. Advances of Atmospheric Sciences, 25(6), 932-945.
12. Weaver, A.J., K. Zickfeld, A. Montenegro, and M. Eby, 2007, Long term climate implications of 2050 emission reduction targets. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L19703.
11. Zickfeld, K., O.A. Saenko, M. Eby, J.C. Fyfe, and A.J. Weaver, 2007, Response of the global carbon cycle to human-induced changes in Southern Hemisphere winds. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L12712.
10. Fyfe, J.C., O.A. Saenko, K. Zickfeld, M. Eby, and A.J. Weaver, 2007, The role of poleward intensifying winds on Southern Ocean warming. Journal of Climate, 20: 5391-5400.
9. Zickfeld, K., A. Levermann, M.G. Morgan, T. Kuhlbrodt, S. Rahmstorf, and D.W. Keith, 2007, Expert judgments on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change. Climatic Change, 82(3-4): 235-265.
8. Knopf, B., M. Flechsig, and K. Zickfeld, 2006, Multi parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 13: 531-540.
7. Kropp, J.P., A. Block, F. Reusswig, K Zickfeld, and H.-J. Schellnhuber, 2006, Semiquantitative Assessment of Regional Climate Vulnerability: The North Rhine - Westphalia Study. Climatic Change, 76(3-4): 265-290.
6. Zickfeld, K., B. Knopf, V. Petoukhov, and H.-J. Schellnhuber, 2005, Is the Indian summer monsoon stable against global change?, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L15707.
5. Rahmstorf, S., and K. Zickfeld, 2005, Thermohaline circulation changes: a question of risk assessment, Climatic Change, 68 (1-2): 241-247.
4. Zickfeld, K., T. Slawig and S. Rahmstorf, 2004, A low-order model for the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to climate change, Ocean Dynamics, 54(1): 8-26.
3. Slawig, T., and K. Zickfeld, 2004, Parameter optimization using algorithmic differentiation in a reduced-form model of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications, 5(3): 501-518.
2. Zickfeld, K., and T. Bruckner, 2003, Reducing the risk of abrupt climate change: emissions corridors preserving the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Integrated Assessment, 4(2): 106-115.
1. Zickfeld, K., M.E. Garcia, and K.H. Bennemann, 1999, Theoretical study of the laser-induced femtosecond dynamics of small Sin clusters, Phys. Rev. B, 59(20): 13422-13430.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Lead Author of:
- Allen, M., O.P. Dube, B. Solecki et al., 2018, Chapter 1: Framing and Context, in: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on the global warming of 1.5 degrees.
- Canadell, J., P. Scheel Monteiro et al., 2021, Chapter 5: Global carbon and other biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks, in: V. Masson-Delmotte and P. Zhai (Eds.): Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Contributing author to:
- Church, J.A., P.U. Clark et al., 2013, Chapter 13: Sea Level Change, in: T.F. Stocker and D. Qin (Eds.): Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1137-1216.
- Collins, M., R. Knutti et al., 2013, Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility, in: T.F. Stocker and D. Qin (Eds.): Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1029-1136.
- Smith, J.B., H.-J. Schellnhuber, M.Q. Mirza, S. Fankhauser, R. Leemans, L. Erda, L. Ogallo, B. Pittock, R. Richels, C. Rosenzweig, U. Safriel, R.S.J. Tol, J. Weyant, G. Yohe, 2001, Vulnerability to Climate Change and Reasons for Concern: A Synthesis, in: J.J. McCarthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J. Dokken, K.S. White (Eds.): Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 913-967.
Book chapters
- Kropp, J., K. Zickfeld, and K. Eisenack, 2002, Assessment and management of critical events: The breakdown of marine fisheries and the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. In: A. Bunde, J. Kropp, H.J. Schellnhuber (Eds.), The science of disaster: climate disruptions, heart attacks, and market crashes, Springer, Berlin Heidelberg, 193-216.
- Zimmermann-Timm, H., M. Dimahl and K. Zickfeld, 2018, Hochwasserereignisse in Monsungebieten, in: Lozán, J. L., S.-W. Breckle, H. Graßl, D. Kasang & R. Weisse (Eds.), Warnsignal Klima: Extremereignisse, Wissenschaftliche Auswertungen, Hamburg, 187-192, doi: 10.2312/warnsignal.klima.extremereignisse.27.
Articles in conference proceedings
- Bruckner, T., and K. Zickfeld, 2008, Inverse integrated assessment of climate change: the guardrail approach, International conference on policy modelling, July 2-4 2008, Berlin, Germany.
- Bruckner, T., and K. Zickfeld, 2004, Low risk emissions corridors for safeguarding the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Expert Workshop on “Greenhouse gas emissions and abrupt climate change: positive options and robust policy”, October 30 – October 1, 2004, Paris, France.
- Zickfeld, K., and T. Bruckner, 2002, Emissions corridors preserving the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation, In: A. E. Rizzoli, A.J. Jakeman (Eds.), Integrated assessment and decision support - Proceedings of the 1st biennial meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, 24-27 June 2002, Lugano, Switzerland, 145-150.